In part 2 of this series on 2020 car sales for Electric Vehicles and the wider car market, our guest blogger Darren Tear explains what the latest figures mean for the future of manufacturing and the exciting types of vehicles which we can expect to see in Europe in the near future. Darren is a professional car broker. You can connect with him here to get the best price for your electric vehicle company fleet.
What’s the Future Of Japanese Manufacturers In Europe?
It seems that Mitsubishi are exiting Europe, including the UK faster than was at first thought.
In the UK, at least all new cars must be registered by the end September because that is when the contract between the UK Importer and the manufacturer ends. The last thing the importer wants is to hit the end of September with lots of unsold stock which then has to be pre-registered and sold at big discounts.
Therefore their plan was to have as normal a first quarter as possible, then cut back dramatically on the number of new vehicles they bring in. Lockdown 3 has of course taken away any hope of a “normal” first quarter.
European emissions and other technical regulations in Europe are the most stringent in the World, and European customers look for very sophisticated small cars.
So Japanese manufacturers face very big extra development costs for relatively small resulting sales. Subaru are barely clinging on with just over 13000 car sales in Europe up to the end of September last year and less than 1000 in the UK in full year 2020. When you consider that includes dealer demonstrators and the importer’s staff cars etc actual sales spread over 40-50 dealers must work out at around 15-20 per dealer per year! That simply can’t carry on.
Honda sold less than 28000 cars in the UK last year and only just over 40000 in the whole of Europe to end September. Even Nissan isn’t looking strong. For many years, they competed with Toyota to be the top Japanese manufacturer in Europe but last year sold less than half of what Toyota achieved. Nissan now represents a 2.5% market share in Europe when Toyota due to the success of their hybrid models scored 5.4%.
A particular problem is the massive fines the EU will impose on manufacturers if they don’t meet testing emissions targets. To do that manufacturers must have a range of pure electrics, not just hybrids. And to put it bluntly Mazda, Subaru, and Suzuki simply don’t have that now or on the horizon. Europe is a sideshow to most Japanese manufacturers. For example, only 14% of Suzuki car sales are in Europe.
So what happens? There will be as there already is an element of technology sharing to enable the smaller manufacturers to compete. Which means apart from Nissan sharing with Toyota. Toyota already owns a 5% stake in Suzuki and Mazda and 20% of Subaru and is working with all three on a shared electric platform. Even then the smaller ones may eventually give up on Europe. Subaru almost certainly, Suzuki probably, Mazda maybe?
Another Alternative Fuel Arrives
When you read this you may need to check your calendar to ensure it definitely isn’t April 1st. While the debate rages between Petrol, Diesel, Hybrid, Electric, and Hydrogen – another green fuel has arrived to be considered.
Government funding development has started on a new “Mini Train” that will be powered by what is being politely termed “Human Waste”. A biomethane tank mounted centrally under the floor generates gas from the “fuel” which is then converted to electricity.
The 20m long one carriage train can carry 62 seated passengers plus 58 standing. The train is much lighter than existing diesel-powered units (about 50% less) so will cause much less track damage. Despite the fuel, those behind the project insist no smell or toxic emissions are produced.
It is hoped that this train could enable some of the lines closed in the 1960s to be re-opened. Small branch lines rely on diesel power because electrification is far too expensive but diesel is polluting. Top speed is 50 mph and it will do 2000 miles on a full tank so ideal for commuter lines also. I understand there are currently no plans to use this technology in cars……..
Bigger Trains Take On Trucks
In another train linked move to reduce pollution, longer freight trains are being introduced to transfer freight from trucks. The maximum length in the UK was about 600m; this is being increased to 775m.
As well as taking trucks off the road there will be less trains running so less pollution from the locomotives. I remember some years ago when driving through the Canadian Rockies; the freight trains there are about 2 miles long so we have a long way to go.
Apple Car Rumours Circulate Again
For several years now, there have been rumours that Apple are developing an electric self driving car.
Apparently design and development work is well advanced and discussions are taking place between Apple and Hyundai with the Korean manufacturer likely to be responsible for the production of the cars. Apple has obviously observed how difficult it was for Tesla to actually make the cars once they’d designed them.
Their route of giving that job to people who are already good at making cars in big volume to high quality standards and at low cost makes very sound sense.
Here at Kakapo Energy, we’re optimistic about the future of manufacturing based on the 2020 car sales figures as explained by Darren Tear. Kakapo Energy helps businesses save money on their energy bills through green energy contracts and solar panels. You can read more about our mission here.